Spot freight rates on the global container shipping market have continued their sharp ascent this week, propelled by a combination of early peak‑season demand linked to U.S. tariff uncertainties and persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the latest Global Container Freight Index (WCI) published by Drewry, the composite index jumped 9% compared to the previous week to reach $4,530 per FEU as of this week’s reading.

Trans‑Pacific rates lead the charge

On the key transpacific lanes, spot prices extended their strong rally. The Shanghai–Los Angeles rate increased 10% from the prior week to $6,349/FEU, while the Shanghai–New York rate climbed 11% to $7,902/FEU. Carriers, facing robust booking volumes, have continued to announce general rate increases and peak‑season surcharges. HMM, for instance, will implement a peak‑season surcharge of as much as $3,000 per FEU effective July 15. Drewry analysts expect further gains on the transpacific in the coming weeks, underpinned by resilient demand and limited vessel availability.

Asia‑Europe follows suit

Similar dynamics are playing out on the Asia‑Europe routes. The Shanghai–Genoa rate rose 10% week‑on‑week to $6,360/FEU, and the Shanghai–Rotterdam rate added 7% to $4,682/FEU. Drewry noted that rates on these headhaul trades are likely to maintain their upward trajectory over the next few weeks, supported by an earlier‑than‑usual peak season and elevated operating costs stemming from geopolitical tensions.

Geopolitics and supply‑demand imbalance

Drewry cautioned that the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains precarious, with ongoing Middle East tensions adding a layer of uncertainty that continues to bolster freight costs. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Shipping Exchange’s SCFI index, released on July 3, showed the spot rate from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast at $6,630/FEU – a 9% increase – and to the U.S. East Coast at $8,296/FEU, up 12%. For Europe, the SCFI stood at $3,418/TEU (up 2%) and to the Mediterranean at $4,717/TEU (up 1%). Analysts at the exchange attributed the gains to improving demand and a healthy supply‑demand balance on the U.S. lanes.

Analyst views

Lars Jensen, a well‑known container market analyst, pointed to the combination of strong underlying demand and capacity constraints as the primary drivers behind the abrupt rate surge. Linerlytica added that global container demand now grows at 7.3%, outpacing the 5.4% growth in vessel supply – the widest gap since late 2024. This structural mismatch, together with geopolitical risk premiums, suggests that the current rally may have further room to run in the near term.