Panamax earnings fell below both Supramax and Handysize benchmarks by the end of October, as smaller geared bulkers continued to post rising monthly averages. BRS Shipbrokers’ November 2026 Dry Bulk Monthly Report shows widening differences between vessel segments, with shifting grain flows, changes in voyage duration and newbuilding deliveries helping explain the reversal. Capesizes retained the highest absolute earnings, although their advantage over smaller vessels narrowed considerably.

Panamaxes lose their earnings lead

The October figures show how differently the main dry bulk segments performed. Capesize and Panamax monthly averages declined, while Supramax and Handysize earnings continued to rise.

The reversal became more pronounced towards the end of the month. The Panamax P5TC benchmark fell below the Supramax S10TC on 15 October and below the Handysize HS7TC on 27 October. By month-end, Panamax earnings stood at US$16,999/day, trailing Supramaxes by US$4,536/day and Handysizes by US$1,256/day. At that point, a Handysize benchmark vessel with less than half the Panamax’s deadweight capacity was earning more per day.

The crossover was concentrated in Panamaxes and the smaller geared segments. Capesizes still led in absolute earnings, but the ratio of average Capesize to Supramax earnings fell from 2.47 in September to 1.56 in October. These figures compare earnings benchmarks for standard vessels and route baskets. Individual owners’ returns also depend on acquisition prices, financing and operating costs, but the divergence demonstrates how differently conditions were developing across the market.

Grain growth delivers uneven gains

Grain offers one explanation for the differences in vessel employment. BRS reported global grain loadings of 488.3 million tonnes during January–October 2026, up 5.4% year on year. Ultramax grain volumes increased by 26.0%, compared with 9.3% for Supramaxes and 7.1% for Kamsarmaxes. The additional business was therefore distributed unevenly across vessel sizes.

The differences become clearer when the time required to carry those cargoes is included. BRS measured cargo-weighted employment in tonne-days, capturing both cargo volume and the duration of employment. This measure rose by 22.4% for Ultramaxes and 11.4% for Supramaxes, but by only 3.2% for Kamsarmaxes. The figures illustrate why cargo origins, destinations and voyage duration matter alongside the number of tonnes shipped.

This provides useful context for the Panamax market. The report’s 82,000-dwt earnings benchmark is based on a vessel of Kamsarmax size. An increase in grain carried by this segment can support employment, but its effect on earnings also depends on new vessel supply and demand from other cargoes, including coal. Growth in one commodity needs to be assessed within the wider balance between available ships and cargoes.

Black Sea disruption reshapes cargo routes

A major change in October’s grain trade was the contraction in Black Sea exports. According to BRS, loadings from the region fell by 58.8% year on year to 3.30 million tonnes. Baltic shipments increased by 49.8%, North Pacific shipments by 25.1% and US Gulf shipments by 1.3%. The additional volumes from those three alternative gateways offset approximately 63% of the Black Sea’s annual volume loss.

South America provided further support. Argentina’s October grain loadings rose by 40.5% year on year to 6.07 million tonnes, while Brazil’s increased by 5.6% to 12.7 million tonnes. Growth in these and other regions helped global October loadings increase by 1.9% to 48.46 million tonnes despite the sharp Black Sea decline.

Changes in sourcing can alter vessel demand even when consumption changes little. BRS noted that tighter European corn availability, combined with reduced Ukrainian supplies, was encouraging transatlantic procurement. If European buyers replace nearby Ukrainian supplies with Brazilian cargoes, those shipments require longer voyages and generate additional tonne-miles.

The scale of that support depends on how much replacement cargo can actually move. Rail capacity, port infrastructure and inland logistics constrain alternative export routes and influence their cost. Longer voyages can absorb more vessel time, while lost exports reduce the cargo available to carry. Both effects were evident in the changing pattern of October’s grain trade.

Geared vessels offer more operating options

The resilience of smaller bulkers also reflects the markets they can serve. The Baltic Exchange’s vessel guide describes Supramaxes and Ultramaxes as generally equipped with cargo cranes, while Panamaxes and Kamsarmaxes are usually gearless. For smaller cargo parcels, dispersed destinations and ports with limited shoreside handling equipment, onboard cranes expand the range of workable employment opportunities.

That distinction becomes more relevant when trade flows change. Large, regular shipments between suitable ports allow bigger ships to spread costs across more cargo. When origins, parcel sizes or discharge ports change, charterers also need to consider whether a vessel can access the port, handle the cargo and meet the required schedule. The commercial value of a geared bulker therefore depends on the combination of cargo requirements and port conditions it can accommodate.

Earlier BRS research into smaller geared bulkers identified an increase in laden voyage duration during the first eight months of 2026. Average laden sea time per Handysize voyage rose from 17.52 days a year earlier to 19.27 days, while the Ultramax figure increased from 24.66 to 26.34 days. Longer laden voyages delay the point at which vessels complete their employment and become available for another cargo, potentially supporting freight rates.

Operators must also secure suitable follow-on employment. Ballast distances after discharge, loading windows, hold preparation and port waiting time all affect voyage returns. Owners with established cargo relationships and regional operating experience are better placed to connect individual opportunities into a sequence of commercially attractive voyages.

Kamsarmax deliveries add to Panamax pressure

Underlying shipment growth has been slowing. BRS reported that cumulative annual growth in cargo carried by vessels of 68,000–85,000 dwt eased from 4.5% in the first half of 2026 to 2.4% over the first nine months. Third-quarter shipments in this size range fell by 1.3% year on year. The category covers traditional Panamaxes and Kamsarmaxes, indicating weaker cargo momentum across their trading markets.

Coal demand also varied by region. BRS described Chinese and Indian import procurement as cautious. Higher Chinese utility inventories and changing domestic and imported coal prices affected the attractiveness of overseas purchases. South Korea, meanwhile, increased coal imports ahead of winter as elevated LNG prices supported coal-fired generation. These differing procurement patterns make vessel location and access to specific cargo flows important to earnings.

Supply is adding another constraint. The report listed an existing Kamsarmax fleet of 1,877 vessels and an orderbook of 351 ships, equivalent to 18.7% of the active fleet by vessel count. BRS highlighted substantial Kamsarmax additions during 2026–2027 as a factor limiting sustained P5TC upside. The full orderbook is spread across different delivery years, but the nearer-term additions are already relevant to the market balance.

As cargo growth slows, new ships require additional transport demand, longer voyages or slower fleet turnover to sustain utilisation. If cargo availability is insufficient and vessels complete voyages quickly, more ships return to compete for the next fixture. October’s weaker Panamax earnings need to be viewed within this combination of moderating cargo growth and expanding capacity.

Prompt ships command strong prices, but smaller bulkers face future supply

Firm conditions in smaller bulkers are also reflected in prompt vessel asking prices. BRS cited a 2026-built Japanese Ultramax available for prompt delivery being marketed at around US$47 million. A comparable newbuilding ordered from a Japanese yard for delivery in 2030 was priced at approximately US$40 million. Similar Chinese newbuildings were quoted at around US$35 million, with some first-tier CSSC yards seeking approximately US$37 million.

The US$47 million figure was an asking price, and BRS did not identify a concluded sale at that level. Shipyard, specification and transaction terms also influence vessel values. Nevertheless, the comparison suggests substantial value is being attached to prompt availability: an immediately available ship can participate in the current earnings market, while a vessel delivering in 2030 must wait several years to begin generating revenue.

Smaller segments are also accumulating future capacity. The Ultramax orderbook stood at 540 vessels, representing approximately 31% of all dry bulk orders by ship count and 28.4% of the existing Ultramax fleet. The segment benefiting from stronger grain employment and changes in voyage duration will need sufficient cargo demand to absorb those deliveries.

All four main vessel segments averaged higher earnings in October than a year earlier, leaving the wider dry bulk market at a relatively firm level. The persistence of alternative grain sourcing, changes in laden voyage duration and the ability of new ships to secure cargo will shape the earnings gap between vessel sizes. For owners and operators, assessing ship size alongside cargo access, port suitability and successive voyage opportunities remains central to capturing the benefits of this divergence.