Global Shipping Market Weekly: Dry Bulk and Tanker Rates Diverge as LNG and LPG Markets Strengthen

全球航运市场周报:散货与油轮分化
Walter (宏利)
Published 14:20

Dry bulk markets ended the week on a firmer note, while crude and product tanker rates came under significant pressure. LNG and LPG shipping markets moved in the opposite direction, supported by improving demand and tighter vessel availability. Container freight rates remained mixed across major trade lanes.

Dry Bulk: Capesize and Panamax Markets Recover

Capesize

The Capesize market ended the week stronger overall, although performance varied between the Pacific and Atlantic basins.

The Pacific market was the main source of pressure early in the week. Despite continued activity from two major miners, charterers repeatedly tested lower levels, pushing C5 rates from around US$13.80 per tonne to just above US$13.00. Sentiment improved midweek, but activity remained selective. A Friday fixture at US$13.25 per tonne left the route below its Monday opening level.

The South Brazil and West Africa-to-China markets staged a more pronounced recovery. After a quiet start, activity increased significantly on Wednesday, with more than 15 fixtures reportedly concluded on the C3 route, pushing rates towards US$37.00 per tonne. Activity subsequently slowed, while lower-priced fixtures on Thursday indicated growing caution among owners.

The North Atlantic performed more strongly. Increased transatlantic demand pushed the C8 index to US$41,000 per day by Friday, with fresh enquiries emerging for both transatlantic and fronthaul voyages. Lower bunker prices during the second half of the week also supported round-voyage time-charter equivalent (TCE) earnings.

The BCI 182 5TC started the week at US$35,944 per day, declined on Tuesday and then recovered steadily to close at US$39,395 per day.

Panamax

The Panamax market started quietly but gained momentum as demand improved and available tonnage tightened across both basins.

In the Atlantic, increasing transatlantic and fronthaul enquiries supported rates, particularly in the western Mediterranean. However, relatively ample tonnage in the Continent limited broader gains.

Reported fixtures included an 82,000 dwt vessel fixed at slightly below US$30,000 per day for a transatlantic voyage from the South Atlantic to Europe. A US Gulf fronthaul fixture to the Continent was reported at US$24,000 per day, while another South Atlantic-to-fronthaul voyage to the West Indies was concluded at US$18,750 per day.

The Pacific market also strengthened, supported by strong Australian mineral cargo demand. An 82,000 dwt vessel was fixed at US$22,000 per day to South China, a 90,000 dwt vessel at US$24,000 per day to Japan, and an 81,000 dwt vessel at US$20,500 per day.

Indonesian activity remained steady, with a 76,000 dwt vessel fixed at US$17,000 per day to South China. The North Pacific showed signs of stabilisation, although increasing vessel availability limited optimism. One 82,000 dwt vessel was reported fixed at US$19,750 per day for a Japan round voyage.

Period activity remained limited, with an 83,000 dwt vessel reportedly fixed for 11–13 months at around US$19,500 per day.

Supramax and Ultramax

The Supramax and Ultramax markets remained generally subdued, with several holidays and the Eisbein event contributing to downward pressure on rates.

North America was an exception, with the market reversing its earlier weakness. Two 63,000 dwt vessels were fixed for petcoke shipments to India at US$34,000 and US$34,500 per day. A 52,000 dwt vessel was fixed at US$28,000 per day for a petcoke voyage from Port Arthur to Iskenderun. Earlier in the week, however, a 63,000 dwt vessel carrying grain via the Cape of Good Hope to China had reportedly been fixed at a disappointing US$27,000 per day.

Activity in the Continent declined substantially compared with previous weeks. Nevertheless, a 60,000 dwt vessel achieved US$36,000 per day for a scrap voyage from Tilbury to the eastern Mediterranean. Mediterranean tonnage availability remained relatively limited despite subdued activity.

The South Atlantic initially lacked prompt cargoes, although demand for late November and early December appeared healthier.

In Asia, increasing vessel availability and fewer North Pacific grain cargoes weakened market support. A 63,000 dwt vessel was fixed at US$26,000 per day from North China to West Africa for steel and general cargo. Southeast Asian owners also faced stronger competition from vessels open in India and Chittagong.

The Indian Ocean experienced the greatest pressure. With few fresh enquiries, a 57,000 dwt vessel was fixed for a Richards Bay-to-Pakistan coal voyage at US$21,500 per day plus a US$215,000 ballast bonus.

Period discussions were limited, although a 61,000 dwt vessel open in the western Indian Ocean in mid-November was rumoured to have been fixed for one year at above US$18,000 per day.

Handysize

The Handysize market remained quiet, with limited reported fixtures and mixed regional performance.

The Continent and Mediterranean benefited from fresh cargo enquiries and tightening tonnage availability. A 36,000 dwt vessel open at Constanta between 2 and 5 November was fixed at US$12,250 per day for a urea voyage through the Black Sea to Poland.

The US Gulf also showed signs of improvement as cargo volumes increased and prompt tonnage became scarce. A 39,000 dwt vessel open in Wilmington was fixed for a mid-November delivery at Savannah, carrying grain products to the Continent, at US$21,000 per day.

By contrast, the South Atlantic remained weak, with limited fresh demand weighing on rates. A 28,000 dwt vessel open at Tema between 1 and 7 November was fixed at US$14,000 per day for a grain voyage via Recalada to Algeria.

Asian activity remained subdued, with rates broadly stable and no clear market direction. A 35,000 dwt vessel open in Thailand was reported on subjects at above US$18,000 per day for a voyage to Japan.

Product Tankers: Rates Ease Across Major Routes

Product tanker markets generally weakened across most major trading routes.

In the Middle East Gulf, LR2 earnings diverged between routes. The LR2 TC1 route (Middle East Gulf–Japan, 75,000 tonnes) fell 8 Worldscale points to WS1005, while round-voyage TCE increased slightly by US$100 to US$292,000 per day.

The westbound TC20 route (Middle East Gulf–UK/Continent, 90,000 tonnes) fell by US$2.21 million to US$19.29 million, with corresponding TCE at US$297,300 per day. The TC15 Mediterranean-to-Far East route declined by US$1.70 million to US$9.25 million, while TCE dropped US$20,400 to US$79,200 per day.

LR1 rates also weakened. TC5 (Middle East Gulf–Japan, 55,000 tonnes) fell 9 points to WS1025, with TCE at US$212,300 per day. TC8 (Middle East Gulf–UK/Continent, 65,000 tonnes) declined by US$1.58 million to US$14.75 million, while TCE fell US$27,600 to US$223,700 per day.

MR markets showed similar pressure. TC17 (Middle East Gulf–East Africa, 35,000 tonnes) slipped 5 points to WS896, although TCE increased US$1,000 to US$113,900 per day.

In the UK/Continent, TC2 (ARA–US Atlantic Coast, 37,000 tonnes) declined 22 points to WS206, with TCE down US$3,300 to US$13,600 per day.

In the US Gulf, TC14 (US Gulf–UK/Continent, 38,000 tonnes) fell 47 points to WS429, with TCE declining US$8,500 to US$60,800 per day. TC21 (US Gulf–Caribbean, 38,000 tonnes) fell US$157,100 to US$1.47 million, while TCE also dropped US$8,500 to US$60,600 per day. The MR Atlantic triangulation TCE declined from US$82,100 to US$72,000 per day.

Handysize tanker markets also weakened. TC6 (Mediterranean regional, 30,000 tonnes) fell 73 points to WS448, with TCE down US$20,200 to US$88,100 per day. TC23 (UK/Continent regional, 30,000 tonnes) declined 79 points to WS420, while TCE dropped US$22,400 to US$78,500 per day.

Crude Tankers: VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax Rates Retreat

Crude tanker freight rates fell sharply across all three major vessel segments, with the Baltic Exchange reporting substantial declines across its benchmark routes.

VLCC

VLCC rates moved lower across both the Middle East and Atlantic basins.

TD3C (Middle East Gulf–China, 270,000 tonnes) fell nearly 47 points from the previous Friday to WS1220.63, equivalent to a round-voyage TCE of US$1,303,616 per day for a standard Baltic VLCC.

TD34 (Oman Gulf–China) recorded a steeper decline of nearly 86 points to WS586.43, with TCE at US$619,969 per day.

In the Atlantic, TD15 (West Africa–China, 260,000 tonnes) fell 77.5 points to WS564.38, producing TCE of US$561,731 per day.

TD22 (US Gulf–China) declined by more than US$5.7 million to below US$58 million, with TCE falling to slightly below US$451,000 per day.

Suezmax

Suezmax rates also corrected sharply as the market moved towards a more balanced position.

TD20 (Nigeria–UK/Continent, 130,000 tonnes) fell by more than 270 points, or 38%, to WS430, with round-voyage TCE at approximately US$224,500 per day.

TD27 (Guyana–UK/Continent, 130,000 tonnes) declined 318 points, or 45%, to WS382.22, with TCE slightly above US$198,400 per day.

TD33 (US Gulf–UK/Continent, 145,000 tonnes) dropped 321 points, or 52%, to WS292.78, with TCE slightly above US$172,200 per day.

In the Black Sea, TD6 (CPC–Augusta, 135,000 tonnes) plunged nearly 274 points, or 29%, to WS664.44, with TCE just below US$513,400 per day.

Aframax

Aframax markets also recorded substantial declines.

In the North Sea, TD7 (UK/Continent regional, 80,000 tonnes), based on Hound Point–Wilhelmshaven, fell 212.5 points to WS350, with TCE just below US$242,600 per day.

In the Mediterranean, TD19 (Mediterranean regional, 80,000 tonnes), based on Ceyhan–Lavera, dropped nearly 373 points to WS300, with TCE at approximately US$100,300 per day.

Atlantic routes weakened sharply. TD26 (East Coast Mexico–US Gulf, 70,000 tonnes) fell 288 points to WS408, with TCE close to US$122,000 per day. TD9 (Covenas–US Gulf, 70,000 tonnes) declined nearly 290 points to WS397, with TCE slightly above US$111,100 per day.

TD25 (US Gulf–UK/Continent, 70,000 tonnes), based on Houston–Rotterdam, plunged more than 295 points to around WS399, with TCE at approximately US$107,500 per day.

Vancouver export rates weakened again. TD28 (Vancouver–China, 80,000 tonnes) fell US$1.88 million to US$10.15 million, with TCE below US$206,200 per day. TD29 (Vancouver–US West Coast Pacific Offshore Lightering Point, 80,000 tonnes) declined 104 points to WS783.

LNG Shipping: Spot Rates Gain Ground

The LNG shipping market strengthened during the week, supported by increased fixing activity east of the Suez Canal and tightening vessel availability.

Atlantic spot rates also improved gradually, although relatively weak cargo demand and remaining open tonnage continued to limit further gains.

The Baltic LNG benchmark routes all recorded increases:

  • BLNG1 (Australia–Japan): Up US$9,600 to US$54,600 per day, supported by increased fixing activity and tighter vessel availability.

  • BLNG2 (US Gulf–Continent): Up US$5,700 to US$35,300 per day. The absorption of some available tonnage supported rates, although subdued demand kept gains moderate.

  • BLNG3 (US Gulf–Japan): Up US$2,200 to US$64,600 per day. Tighter effective vessel availability supported the route, although a wide gap between bid and offer levels continued to limit liquidity.

Period charter rates were mixed. Six-month rates increased US$1,700 to US$44,200 per day, while one-year rates edged up US$200 to US$54,067 per day. Three-year rates slipped slightly by US$100 to US$70,500 per day.

LPG Shipping: Western Market Activity Supports Rates

The LPG market strengthened, with more active fixing in the western basin supporting freight rates.

Market sentiment remained positive as additional cargoes continued to be negotiated and vessel availability remained broadly balanced against demand.

  • BLPG1 (Ras Tanura–Chiba): Freight rates closed at US$261.40 per tonne, with TCE at US$254,022 per day.

  • BLPG2 (Houston–Flushing): Rates increased US$5.33 to US$180.00 per tonne, while TCE rose US$9,610 to US$210,924 per day.

  • BLPG3 (Houston–Chiba): Rates gained US$8.29 to US$322.29 per tonne, with TCE increasing US$10,491 to US$196,055 per day.

BLPG3 continued to strengthen as cargo activity remained active and vessel availability broadly balanced demand.

Container Shipping: Mixed Performance Across Major Trade Lanes

Container freight rates showed mixed movements across major routes.

The weighted Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) declined 17 points from the previous Friday's 3,514 to close at 3,497.

On the Asia–North America trade, the Asia–US West Coast benchmark (FBX01) increased US$176 to US$8,518 per FEU. By contrast, Asia–US East Coast rates (FBX03) slipped US$52 to US$9,848 per FEU.

Asia–North Europe rates (FBX11) fell US$211 to US$3,384 per FEU, while Asia–Mediterranean rates (FBX13) edged down US$55 to US$4,315 per FEU.

The largest weekly decline was recorded on the North America East Coast–North Europe route (FBX21), where rates dropped US$221 from US$1,155 to US$934 per FEU.

Overall, container freight performance remained uneven, with gains on the Asia–US West Coast trade failing to offset declines across several other major routes.

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