Container cargo volumes at Chinese ports (including Hong Kong) could fall as much as 6m teu in the first quarter of 2020, estimates analyst, Alphaliner.
The full impact of the Chinese coronavirus is unlikely to become clear until the ports release their throughput figures for the first quarter, but data collected on weekly container vessel calls at key Chinese ports already shows a reduction of over 20% since 20 January, say Alphaliner.
Hong Kong saw container throughput fall more than 20% in January.
In addition to service reductions announced previously, carriers have reacted to the chaos with extra void sailings in February, which accounts for reduced cargo volumes. As these extended void sailing programmes on long haul services are set to continue until mid-March, any cargo volume recovery could be negatively affected, even after the holidays.
Meanwhile industrial production continues to be adversely affected despite shipyards opening in the cities and provinces of Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Fujian and Anhui.
“This will not only affect deliveries of vessel newbuildings, but it will contribute to the chaos that the current scrubber-refit frenzy has caused,” says the analyst.
Such delays have not only affected ships under conversion, but also delayed planned drydocking slots for vessels that queue up for retrofits.
In many cases, this has left shipowners in a dilemma – whether to idle off the china coast while waiting for a new slot or send the vessels on a round trip to Europe where Turkish yards have been picking up contracts for scrubber retrofits.
Source:hongkongmaritimehub
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