Headwinds & Tailwinds
Bearish economic news has recently dominated headlines, increasing fears of a global recession. According to S&P Global, Eurozone manufacturing activity contracted in July, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the leading indicator of manufacturing activity, slipping below 50, a point that marks the divide between expansion and contraction. Data from many other countries is also alarming, with growth rates rapidly decelerating. In the US and in the UK, the PMI declined last month to its lowest reading in two years, whilst in Japan it hit a 10-month low. In China, the official PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.0 in July from 50.2 during the previous month amid sporadic lockdowns. In the oil markets, evidence is mounting that high petrol prices are hurting road fuel demand. The official data for OECD Europe and Asia showed that demand in April fell below its typical seasonal trend, whilst preliminary weekly indications of US oil consumption for July also show a decline year-on-year.
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