XINDE MARINE NEWS
Record soybean harvest predicted despite Brazilian export decline of 31% Xinde Marine News 2023-03-09 15:59


“Brazil’s soybean harvest is behind schedule due to heavy rain with exports down 31% y/y in the first two months of 2023. But despite the slow start, Brazil is headed for a record harvest and a sharp increase in exports during the coming months,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.

This year’s soybean harvest is expected to reach 152.9 million tonnes, 21.8% higher than in 2022, according to the National Supply Company (CONAB). As of 6 March, 44% of the planted area has been harvested, 9 percentage points lower than at the same time last year. Despite the rain causing harvest delays, the weather does not appear to have resulted in significant crop loss so far. Therefore, it is expected that the peak loading period is merely delayed.

“As the world’s largest soybean exporter, Brazil’s strong harvest will aid market conditions for grain shipping in 2023. A recovery in export volumes will aid panamax rates in the Atlantic basin as they transport over 85% of Brazilian soybeans and grains account for around half of panamax cargo loadings in the Atlantic,” says Gouveia.

The soybean trade is very sensitive to supply and demand shocks as it revolves around a small number of exporters and importers. Last year, drought in Brazil caused a reduction in both production and export volumes, resulting in higher global soybean prices and demand destruction. In the current marketing year, Brazil and the US should account for 55% and 32% of total world exports respectively, while China is expected to account for 59% of imports.

China’s appetite for soybeans is expanding and imports rose 16% y/y in the first two months of 2023. Improved economic conditions and lower soybean prices are likely to cause a rebound in import demand in 2023. Last year, high soybean prices and low profit margins in Chinese soybean crushers caused Chinese soybean imports to fall 6%.

“Driven by higher production and demand, Brazilian soybean exports are estimated to jump 19% in 2023 and expected to be the key driver of global grains exports. Wheat and maize supplies are estimated to remain strained, not least due to lower Ukrainian volumes,” says Gouveia.


The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Xinde Marine News.

Please Contact Us at:

media@xindemarine.com


展开全文

Related Posts

SHFE Internationalizes its Business Rules to Facilitate High-Standard Opening Up of the Futures Marke

Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHF2025-07-09

Ningbo Containerized Freight Index Weekly Commentary: Overall Shipping Demand Is Insufficient, and Fr

NINGBO SHIPPING EXCHANGE2025-07-07

Valmet to deliver Valmet DNA to a bio-based process plant in Portugal

xinde marine news2025-07-02

Ningbo Containerized Freight Index Weekly Commentary: Freight Rates Diverge Between Europe and Medite

NINGBO SHIPPING EXCHANGE2025-06-30

BIMCO Shipping Number of the Week: Ship recycling could double to 16,000 ships over the next 10 years

BIMCO2025-06-26

Ningbo Containerized Freight Index Weekly Commentary: Overall Shipments have Slowed Down, Freight Rat

NINGBO SHIPPING EXCHANGE2025-06-23