Global Offshore Wind: 250 GW and 30,000 turbines by 2030 projected, significant investment in newbuildings needed

This week, the Global Offshore Wind 2023 conference will be held at the ExCel Centre in London with over 5,000 attendees and 260 exhibitors expected. In their latest weekly insight for the shipping industry, Clarksons Researchprofiles progress in the exciting offshore wind industry and the vital role it will play in energy transition.
 
Steve Gordon, Managing Director of Clarksons Research, commented:  

Today the offshore wind sector provides 0.4% of global energy supply, with 283 farms, 62.3 GW of active capacity and ~12,400 turbines involved.

Fivefold expansion expected by 2030, with our projections suggesting ~250 GW of active capacity and 30,000 active turbines.

After some delays in 2022 related to inflation and interest rate rises, over $56bn of new capital commitments for offshore wind is expected in 2023, with an all-time high of $34bn excluding China expected.

An all-time global high of capital commitments for offshore wind projects expected for 2024 of ~$70bn.

19 countries are expected to host active capacity by end-2023, projected to rise to 34 countries by 2030 driven by energy transition and energy security focus.

Today, China has the largest GW capacity (30.5GW, involving 121 farms and 5,936 turbines) followed by the UK (13.7GW, involving 46 farms and 2,654 turbines, projected to reach 48.7GW and 91 farms and 5,125 turbines by end-2030 and remain a market leader in innovation (e.g. Floating Wind) and in supporting the electrification of North Sea oil and gas infrastructure).

Upsizing of turbines ongoing, trend towards deepwater and expansion of floating wind solutions.   

We estimate that the shipping fleet supporting offshore wind farm construction and maintenance has expended to over ~1,300 vessels with ~200 under construction.

After strong newbuild investment in 2022, this year has continued positively, with 5 WTIV orders, 10 C/SOVs orders and 23 CTVs orders. We are projecting ~USD 8bn of newbuild orders to be placed in 2023 and a total of ~$76bn over the 2020s as a decade.

Alternative fuels are in focus (e.g. methanol for C/SOVs, now 5 on order, plus two hydrogen dual fuel and other methanol “ready” orders) along with Energy Saving Technologies (ESTs - e.g. battery packs for ‘peak-shaving’ during DP operations, 100% of the C/SOV orderbook).

Our long-term scenarios suggest offshore wind will play a vital role in the Energy Transition, potentially providing between 7% and 9% of global energy supply by 2050 (from 0.4% today) and requiring a ~20 fold increase in generation capacity.

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Xinde Marine News.