Global steel production grew by 62.4mt or 4.4% year-on-year during the first ten months of 2018. Growth was once again driven by China as it accounted for about 42mt of the incremental increase in output. Chinese growth accelerated in September and October as steel mills lifted output ahead of the winter production cuts in November.
More encouragingly, steel production outside of China gathered pace in October. After slowing to 1.1% in September ex-China output grew 2.3%, a comforting development after a raft of negative macro data on the state of the global industrial economy.
Vietnam, India and Iran lead the surge in ex-China production. Each of these countries produced at least 3mt more than they did in 2017. Vietnam in particular saw a sharp rise as it more than doubled its output, while Iran and the US reported a rise north of 10%.
However, things look a little less rosy elsewhere. Having dropped 2.4% year-on-year in September Japan’s production fell by another 4.5% in October. The decline could be partly explained by the ramp-up in production by countries in south-east Asia, such as Vietnam and Thailand. Other major steel producers also sent out alarming signals. India’s output only grew marginally by 0.4% in October, marking the third consecutive month of deceleration. Similarly in the EU, production shrank compared to the same month a year ago, after several months of marginal growth.
Source:Arrow
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